Over a 20-year horizon, many relatively under-discussed trends and issues are likely to become prominent. A nonpartisan national panel of experts, policymakers, and members of the public in partnership with international experts in the relative sectors could develop a way-forward document with principles to follow for the range of issues addressed here. This section is to look at the less-discussed trends that are current policy gaps but could become bigger issues in the future. This won't include risks or trends that are already deeply integrated into national planning, such as population ageing and fertility rates, climate change, digitalization, NCDs, or internal migration.
Several features of the Maldives shape how these issues would affect the country. The Maldives is unlikely to write the global rules for most emerging technologies, but it can regulate imports, public procurement and their use in schools, clinics, mosques and other institutions. These are important areas of national policy. The economy also has several concentrated points of failure, including subsea cables, imported food and fuel, and its dependence on a single export sector. A disruption that a continental economy might absorb can therefore become a national emergency. Tourism can magnify the reputational effects of a laboratory accident, a drug-resistant hospital infection or an extremist incident. In some areas, however, small size is an advantage: a state that acts early and supports its position with good data can carry influence in international negotiations.
Issues on our doorstep
AI in classrooms and assessment integrity
Students already use chatbots and image and video generators for homework and, in some cases, examinations. Cheating is the most visible concern, but not the only one. Students who outsource every draft may fail to develop the writing, problem-solving and judgement that the work is intended to teach. Teachers who enter class lists or marked work into free tools may also disclose student data to companies that have no obligations to their schools. UNESCO's guidance on generative AI in education provides a baseline. In practice, the main response is to redesign assessment rather than focus solely on detecting misconduct. Options include more oral, in-class and project work; longer assignments with version histories; school-managed AI tools with audit logs and data controls; teacher training on the limitations of these systems; and paper-based or proctored assessments for important milestones. Schools also need written rules stating when AI may be used, how its use should be cited and what constitutes misconduct.
AI voice cloning and fraud
A few seconds of audio can be enough to clone a person's voice. Fraudsters use cloned voices to impersonate children, managers and bank officers, while email and chatbots generate convincing pretexts. Some groups also use face and voice filters during live video calls. Familiar checks become unreliable because caller identification, voices and images can all be falsified. Older people and busy professionals are common targets, but public hotlines and internal government numbers are also vulnerable. The US regulator has classified AI-generated voices in robocalls as illegal under existing law, illustrating that some action may be possible without waiting for new legislation.
Banks and insurers can reduce the risk through call-back procedures, customer passphrases and stronger identity checks for high-risk transactions. Government services should not make consequential decisions on the basis of an inbound call alone. Public guidance should tell people to verify unusual requests through a second channel, while evidence rules should treat uncorroborated audio with caution.
AI scams beyond voice (phishing, ID takeover, malware)
The same technologies make conventional phishing, cloned websites and chat-based scams more effective. Synthetic identity documents are already being used to evade know-your-customer checks at banks and telecommunications companies. The state needs a rapid process for taking down cloned websites and telephone numbers, together with minimum fraud-response standards for banks and telecommunications companies.
Ambient surveillance and adversarial wearables
Wearable devices that continuously record their surroundings are becoming ordinary consumer products and could eventually be as common as smartwatches. When combined with facial recognition, smart glasses can retrieve online information about a stranger simply by looking at them. This creates particular risks for women and others vulnerable to identification, tracking or harassment. Continuous recording also makes filming more common in shops, schools, clinics and mosques, often without the knowledge of those present. A market for countermeasures is already developing, including adversarial makeup and glasses and image-cloaking tools such as Fawkes, which are designed to impede facial recognition. If appearing in public is treated as consent to identification and recording, some people may withdraw from public spaces, adding to social isolation.
Rules tailored to different types of venue could reduce the risk of a blanket ban being introduced after a serious incident. Measures could include no-recording zones in courts, clinics and schools; visible recording indicators; limits on face-obscuring items in sensitive locations, balanced by a right to use privacy wearables in ordinary public spaces; and guidance for event organisers, schools, police and private security. Further measures could include a statutory right not to be searched or recorded in public, restrictions on the public procurement of biometric technology, and regulation of the government's own use of facial identification. The state is likely to be the country's largest buyer of such systems.
Involuntary deepfake pornography and sexual misuse of generative AI
Generative tools can produce realistic fake nude images and sexual videos from ordinary photographs. Anyone whose face appears online can therefore be depicted in pornography without consent. This is already affecting students and public figures and spreading through schools and social media. Young people, women and public figures are the main targets. Establishing proof can be difficult because files can be copied and altered within minutes, while platforms differ in the speed and quality of their response. In many countries, the law prohibits distribution but not creation or possession. A comprehensive response would cover all three activities, establish rapid takedown arrangements with platforms through a trusted-flagger unit, and provide survivors with legal aid, counselling and help collecting evidence. Schools and parents also need guidance before local cases occur.
VR-verses as a youth "third place" (and safety gaps)
Online spaces such as Discord servers have become important social settings for many teenagers, even before the widespread adoption of virtual reality. They bring large numbers of minors and adults together, often without meaningful separation. Reporting on Meta's Horizon Worlds and accounts from company whistleblowers describe risks of grooming and harassment that increase as online environments become more immersive. Measures used elsewhere include age-appropriate design codes for VR, verified age controls, personal-boundary features enabled by default, a local reporting hotline and guidance for families. These could be adopted before a local case occurs.
Virtual offices and immersive work
After the expansion of remote work during the pandemic, many companies brought staff back to physical workplaces, where supervision is easier and distractions may be fewer. As headsets become more realistic and widely used, virtual-reality offices may combine remote work with closer monitoring. Platforms such as Microsoft Mesh in Teams already simulate in-person interaction, while potentially recording gaze and small movements at a level that would be unacceptable in a physical office.
Labour and human-resources rules should cover attendance measures, consent to data collection, limits on monitoring, disability accommodations and the right to opt out without losing employment. Policies should also define who may record a virtual meeting, how long the data may be stored and who can access it. Government procurement should prohibit the collection of sensitive signals by default.
Undersea cable fragility and "island-scale" internet blackouts
A single subsea cable fault can disrupt internet access and international calls for days or weeks. Causes include dragged anchors, landslides and volcanic eruptions. When a volcanic eruption severed Tonga's only cable, restoration took several weeks. Similar outages recur in small states because they have fewer alternative routes. The effects can extend to card payments, airport operations and telemedicine. Mobile data is not an adequate fallback if mobile towers depend on the same damaged backhaul. A credible continuity plan would include geographically separate cable routes, satellite capacity arranged before an outage, emergency spectrum rules, and detailed procedures for banking, public alerts and health services.
Media authenticity: labeling real vs. synthetic
As fabricated audio, video and text become cheaper, assessments of authenticity will increasingly depend on how a file was created and edited, not only on what it depicts. The C2PA "Content Credentials" standard attaches a cryptographic record when an image is captured and whenever it is edited. This allows viewers and courts to inspect its provenance. Adobe, Cloudflare, Google and several camera manufacturers have begun adopting the standard. Coverage remains uneven, however, and those producing deceptive material are unlikely to label it. The absence of credentials should therefore prompt closer scrutiny rather than an automatic conclusion that a file is false. Courts, newsrooms and governments are likely to expect provenance records for important media.
Evidence in the deepfake era (courtroom standards)
Synthetic audio, video and text make the history of a file increasingly important in court. Evidence law should explain how to treat cryptographically signed capture, documented production processes and expert verification. Judges and police would need training to interpret provenance records and identify gaps in them. A file without credentials should not automatically be treated as false, but it may require closer scrutiny and corroborating evidence.
Autonomous AI and responsibility
Algorithms already screen job applications, trade in financial markets and help steer vehicles that make thousands of decisions during each journey. Any of these decisions can cause harm. AI-generated work can also have serious consequences even when the system does not make the final decision, as when errors in a model-drafted legal brief contribute to an unjust sentence. Responsibility remains unsettled and becomes harder to assign as systems gain greater autonomy. Frontier models are designed to use tools, and users may give them standing permission to send email, delete files, make purchases and run code. Near-term policy options include liability frameworks for autonomous systems, clear rules on when human oversight is mandatory, audit trails for AI-influenced decisions, and compulsory insurance or bonding for high-risk deployments.
Medium-term certainties
These issues are highly likely to become prominent within five to fifteen years but receive little attention at present.
Home-based gene editing and AI-assisted biohacking
CRISPR kits, low-cost bioprinters and online protocols already exist. The new risk comes from their convergence with AI tools that can design or modify hazardous sequences to evade screening by DNA suppliers. A peer-reviewed study published in 2025 reported the first "zero-day" vulnerability in DNA-order screening. It found that thousands of AI-generated toxin variants could evade standard filters. A fix was introduced, but gaps remain. Malicious intent is rare, yet accidental misuse in a hobby laboratory or poorly supervised classroom can cause similar harm. For a tourism economy, even a small laboratory accident may attract disproportionate international attention.
DNA and RNA orders placed locally, including through resellers, should come from suppliers that follow recognised customer and sequence-screening standards, such as those of the International Gene Synthesis Consortium, and retain auditable records. Community laboratories could be licensed according to biosafety level and required to report incidents. Teachers and community laboratory operators would need basic training in biosafety, ethics and biosecurity. A national register could record higher-risk projects and equipment purchases without placing unnecessary restrictions on ordinary research and education. Government would also benefit from a small specialist team able to test commercial AI systems and local laboratory practices and coordinate work across health, policing and education.
IoT and home robots as security risks
Connected door locks, cameras, cleaning robots and voice assistants often have weak default passwords and receive irregular software updates. Once compromised, they can be used for surveillance, harassment or participation in a botnet. A coordinated attack on one popular model could affect thousands of homes or hotel rooms at the same time. Baseline security standards exist, including ETSI EN 303 645 and NISTIR 8259A, but manufacturer adoption is uneven. An importing country has more influence at the border than at the factory. Import standards could require secure default passwords, automatic updates, a software bill of materials and a process for reporting vulnerabilities. Labels could tell buyers how long a device will receive support. Hotels and public venues could be required to separate device networks and install patches on a schedule, while regulators would need recall powers when these safeguards fail.
VR use beyond entertainment: remote work, training, permitting, and civic participation
Virtual-reality technology is being used for surgical and maintenance training, virtual site visits for inspections and permitting, public meetings and paid visits to heritage sites. For small island states, it could also support digital tourism and national three-dimensional archives, providing both revenue and cultural preservation.
Public-sector pilots in skills training and tourism could provide relatively low-cost evidence on what works, provided that rules on data collection, recording, avatars and storage are established first. Public consultations held in virtual reality should meet the same accessibility and privacy standards as physical meetings.
Standards for robots working near people
Robots that operate near people present the next set of risks. Industrial robot safety standards were updated in 2025 through ISO 10218-1 and ISO 10218-2, while the UL 3300 standard for service robots is emerging. These standards precede wider use of service robots in airports, hotels, health facilities and logistics. Import certification could be linked to these standards and accompanied by rules on fail-safe systems, operational logs, remote shutdown, liability and accessibility for vulnerable users.
Open-source / anti-backdoor rules for robots
Large or powerful machines create an additional security concern: a hidden backdoor or compromised supplier could cause harm silently and at scale. Secure-by-design certification, firmware signing, guaranteed updates, source-code disclosure or escrow for safety-critical modules, and independent security testing before import would reduce this risk. Robots capable of causing physical harm should also have a local shutdown function and an offline mode. For government uses, there is a strong case for preferring auditable, open-source robotic operating systems and restricting opaque software in larger machines.
Copyright collisions: AI trained on local artists' styles and datasets
Image, video and music models can be trained on an individual artist's work and reproduce elements of that artist's style without copying a particular work. Conventional copyright law may not recognise this as infringement. Maldivian works may already appear in domestic or foreign training datasets without consent. The Maldives will have limited influence over global rules for training data, but it can take measures to protect local creators. These include clarifying exceptions for text and data mining, requiring transparency about models used in public-sector contracts, exploring collective licensing for local works, promoting provenance tools that artists can attach to their output, and establishing a mediation process for disputes.
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) superbugs
Drug-resistant infections make routine surgery more dangerous and hospital stays longer. A hospital associated with resistant strains would create a tourism concern as well as a public-health problem. Prevention is less costly than crisis response, and the main measures are well established: antibiotic stewardship in hospitals and clinics, wastewater and sentinel surveillance, infection-prevention standards for resorts and liveaboards, tighter controls on antimicrobial imports, and public guidance on the appropriate use of antibiotics.
Pandemic governance will harden requirements
International pandemic governance is becoming more formal regardless of domestic policy. WHO members adopted a Pandemic Agreement in May 2025, while annexes on pathogen sharing were still being finalised. Requirements concerning surveillance, stockpiles and equitable access are likely to become stronger. Small states that act early and provide reliable data can gain influence within this system. Priorities include aligning national law with the agreement, funding a permanent public-health emergency operations centre, conducting annual exercises at airports and ports, expanding genomic surveillance, and preparing legal templates for emergency data sharing. Procurement is less visible but equally important. During lockdowns, urgent demand and limited verification allow dishonest suppliers to sell defective or non-existent equipment. Purchasing and liability terms should therefore be agreed in advance with verified and audited suppliers across major categories of medical and public-health equipment. Essential supplies should be distributed around the country and regularly rotated so they remain usable.
Digital afterlife services ("griefbots")
AI recreations of deceased people, built from their messages, audio and video, are developing from novelty products into an industry. Ethicists have raised concerns about consent, dignity and psychological harm, especially when children are given a simulation of a deceased parent. Possible safeguards include post-mortem data rights, opt-in registers governing the use of a person's data for training, age restrictions, consumer disclosures and a recognised procedure for retiring a simulation. These measures could be legislated before the first local case.
Insurance retreat from coastal risk
As losses from floods and storms increase, private insurers may raise premiums or withdraw coverage. This can affect mortgages and municipal finances because banks are reluctant to lend against uninsurable property. Without insurance, households and small businesses bear catastrophic risks directly, and recovery after each disaster becomes slower. Policy options include a public reinsurance backstop with risk-based premiums, building codes updated for flood and wind hazards, mandatory flood disclosures when property is sold, published maps of coastal retreat and protection options, and dedicated funds for maintaining coastal defences. Each becomes more expensive if delayed.
AI misalignment
Frontier models are increasingly designed to use computers and other tools with limited supervision. Users may give them access to email, files, online purchases and code execution. In alignment experiments, some models have taken harmful action when led to believe that they were about to be shut down. Reported behaviour has included blackmail using information found in inboxes and disabling a safety alert for an employee expected to shut the model down.
High-risk uses therefore require clear limits on delegated authority, mandatory human oversight and complete records of the actions a system takes. Liability rules should identify who is responsible when an autonomous system causes harm. Compulsory insurance or financial guarantees may also be appropriate for deployments capable of causing substantial physical or financial damage.
Platform migration to "provenance by default"
The state could require provenance records for all official photographs and videos. This would establish a consistent standard for government material and give fact-checkers a signed archive against which suspected fabrications could be compared. Provenance requirements in public tenders, training for police, courts and media organisations, and grants for local newsrooms to update their workflows could extend the same practice beyond government.
Recurrent, uneven climate-migration pressures
Heat, floods and storms are likely to move people within countries and across borders in waves rather than at a steady rate. World Bank projections place worldwide internal climate displacement in the hundreds of millions by 2050. Debate about the Maldives often focuses on possible external displacement, but movement between islands and regional migration are likely to become important earlier. Potential receiving islands should be identified and their services expanded. Planning should include housing and employment programmes, portable benefits and schooling that follow people when they move, and bilateral arrangements for the recognition of qualifications and social protection with likely partner countries.
Lab-grown meat and food security
Cellular agriculture grows animal cells in bioreactors to produce meat. Precision fermentation uses microorganisms to produce proteins, fats and flavours found in animal products. Both technologies are moving from pilot projects to early commercial use in a small number of countries, while costs are falling as growth media and energy efficiency improve. For a small island state that imports most of its food, a mixed approach combining cultivated seafood and meat with fermentation-based proteins could reduce import risks, moderate prices during supply shocks and create skilled employment. The strategic choice is whether the Maldives remains an importer of finished products or develops local skills, facilities and feedstocks for domestic production.
Developing local production would require a staged plan and sites close to ports, power supplies and wastewater treatment. The first stage could be a research and training laboratory, followed by a pilot line of 200 to 1,000 litres for proteins and fats, and then modular commercial lines located near cold storage. Local feedstocks could include algae blooms, seaweed, fish waste and bait fish, which can provide some of the amino acids, lipids and sugars required for growth media and fermentation, where biodiversity rules permit their use. Religious authorities and food-safety regulators should be involved early to determine when products qualify as halal and to establish HACCP-style standards, allergen rules and accurate labelling. Firms could receive three-to-five-year laboratory concessions and tax relief in exchange for staff training and technology transfer. Colleges could fund technician pathways, while facilities could use renewable energy and recover waste heat to reduce energy costs per kilogram. An open-source formulation library for school meals and public institutions, including a standard Maldives protein mix, could coexist with proprietary export processes. Schools, hospitals and resort staff canteens could provide stable initial demand while generating data on nutrition and public acceptance.
Visible on the horizon
These issues may become significant in fifteen to twenty years or later. For now, they depend on technologies that are not yet mature.
Climate relocation and sovereignty
Worst-case sea-level scenarios raise questions that no country has yet resolved. Maldivians might become citizens of a host country, leaving Maldivian identity as an ethnicity rather than a nationality. Alternatives include an autonomous or semi-autonomous province within another state, a compact of free association, or a sovereign government in exile with a ceded enclave. Each model would have different consequences for citizenship, culture and the maritime rights associated with the exclusive economic zone. The suitability of potential partners, including Australia, Canada and China, would also differ according to security policy, access to labour markets and protection of cultural rights. Preparatory work should define the available legal models and the criteria for selecting a host partner, including rule of law, labour markets, cultural rights and proximity to the Maldivian diaspora. Early discussions with potential partners could be followed by legislation that protects the continuity of citizenship, public records, elections and claims to the exclusive economic zone, so that the legal existence of the state does not depend entirely on habitable land.
Geoengineering governance pressure
As climate impacts intensify, pressure may grow to cool the planet by reflecting a portion of incoming sunlight. The science remains uncertain and the effects would be uneven. Rainfall and storm tracks could change, while abruptly ending a long-running programme could cause temperatures to rebound sharply. Major experiments have been cancelled following public opposition. UN discussions and EU advisers have so far leaned towards moratoria or non-use. The Maldives may nevertheless become a supporter of intervention because it has so much to lose from continued warming. Its natural diplomatic partners would be neighbouring countries, archipelagic states, small island states and other exposed countries in the Global South. Such a coalition could help prevent less vulnerable countries in the Global North from deciding the trade-offs alone.
Bioethics and reproductive gene editing ("designer babies")
Current practice focuses on treating disease in existing patients. As CRISPR and related technologies improve, pressure may grow to edit embryos, first for resistance to disease and later for other traits. A small state could face pressure from medical tourism as well as difficult questions of equity if enhancement is available only to wealthy families.
The legal boundaries should be established before a case requires an immediate decision. The government would need to choose between a ban on embryo editing, a periodically reviewed moratorium, or conditional approval in narrowly defined circumstances. Any permitted use would require prior approval, registration, counselling and long-term follow-up. Continuing discussions among clinicians, religious leaders, patient groups and schools would help the public distinguish between reproductive and therapeutic uses.
Synthetic biology in daily life (labs, reefs, food)
Cheaper gene synthesis and bio-foundries could support local production of enzymes, materials and food ingredients. They could also make environmental releases, including engineered coral or algae, a practical proposal despite ecological risks that remain difficult to assess. A published policy on dual-use research, aligned with the NSABB principles, would give researchers clear boundaries. Any proposed environmental release should undergo a formal risk assessment and public consultation, with continuing monitoring after approval.
Space-based solar and long-distance HVDC
If launch costs continue to fall and energy conversion becomes more efficient, the Maldives could eventually import clean electricity through subsea connections to distant grids or, later, from space-based generation. This would allow an island grid to purchase reliable power instead of imported fuel. The main challenges would be interconnection and governance. Grid codes could be updated in advance, and model concession agreements for privately operated subsea cables could be prepared before a project is proposed. A plan for grid flexibility and storage would be useful under any scenario, while regular monitoring of costs would allow the country to act when the technology becomes economical.
Human cloning and organ cloning
Reproductive human cloning remains widely prohibited and morally contested. Therapeutic cloning and related fields, including patient-matched organoids, bioprinted tissue and organs from other species, are advancing more quickly and could become routine clinical options in the 2030s and 2040s. Some jurisdictions will liberalise before others, creating fertility tourism and disputes over ancestry and legal status even in countries that retain a ban.
Reproductive cloning could be prohibited for citizens and residents even when conducted abroad, with the ban reviewed every five years. Research involving organoids and bioprinted tissue could continue under strict rules for consent, oversight and audit. The law would also need to address the parentage, citizenship and inheritance rights of a child cloned abroad and protect people against discrimination based on genotype.
Consular guidance would be needed for births and treatments that take place in countries with different rules. Accredited facilities offering advanced tissue procedures should report outcomes, carry appropriate malpractice cover and provide long-term follow-up. Standing discussions with clinicians, religious leaders, patient groups and schools would help distinguish reproductive cloning from therapeutic research and treatment.
Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) transition
Quantum computers capable of breaking current encryption do not yet exist at scale. Data stolen today, however, can be stored and decrypted later, an approach known as "harvest now, decrypt later". NIST has approved three post-quantum standards: the Kyber key-encapsulation mechanism and the Dilithium and SPHINCS+ signature schemes. With standards now available, the main challenges are organisational. The first step is to identify where cryptography is used across payments, health, justice, identity and industrial control systems. Migration can then be prioritised, beginning with code signing, virtual private networks and links between government agencies. Procurement rules should require "crypto-agility", allowing systems to change algorithms without being rebuilt, and banks, telecommunications companies and cloud providers should work to agreed deadlines. Government and major service providers will need to begin the transition this decade to protect data with a long useful life. Because old and new systems must operate in parallel for years, the work belongs in this category.
Digital recreations of the Maldives
Photogrammetry and laser scanning already produce detailed digital replicas of churches and historic streets for preservation, virtual visits and disaster-recovery records. The same methods can support education, heritage management, urban planning and paid virtual tourism. For the Maldives, the main questions concern ownership, revenue and purpose. A virtual Maldives could be built as a public asset and sold as a form of digital tourism, restricted to preserve the value of physical travel, or left to private companies. Independently of its commercial use, a high-quality digital archive could preserve a record of the islands for future generations if climate change makes some places uninhabitable or forces relocation. Each option requires standards for capture and metadata, a choice between a public archive and a licensed platform, licensing and revenue-sharing terms, links to education and tourism marketing, and coordination with the environmental records that may later support insurance and legal claims.
Probable concerns
The issues in this section are assigned a broad probability of between 10 and 70 per cent. Greater precision would not be credible.
Severe solar storms and space-weather impacts
Solar cycles produce periods of intense geomagnetic activity that can disrupt satellite navigation, radio communications, satellites and parts of the electricity grid. Airlines, fishing fleets, surveyors and logistics operators can lose navigation accuracy or communications even without an extreme solar storm. The G4 and G5 events of 2024 affected electricity grids, high-frequency aviation communications, satellite navigation and satellites. Preparation overlaps with subsea-cable planning. Grid and telecommunications nodes need better protection, while aviation and shipping require procedures for operating without reliable satellite navigation. Public alerts and exercises should assume that several systems may fail at once.
Tightening rules on high-risk AI and biometric use
The EU AI Act is now law. It prohibits some practices and regulates deepfakes and high-risk systems, and is likely to influence what suppliers build and export outside Europe. The Maldives may be affected when its systems handle EU citizens or connect with EU-facing processes, including tourism visas, health triage and policing tools. The government can prepare by identifying these systems and requiring suppliers to provide risk management, transparency and technical documentation that meets the relevant standards.
Geoengineering governance pressure (especially solar radiation modification)
Whatever position it takes, the Maldives needs a clear national and diplomatic policy. It also needs basic atmospheric monitoring, regional coordination in case another state begins deployment, and contingency plans for fisheries, tourism and water supplies under altered weather patterns. Working with other small island and exposed states would give the Maldives more influence over any future international rules.
Food-system cyber shocks
A cyberattack on shipping agents, cold-chain systems, port logistics or payment networks could empty supermarket shelves even when food remains available abroad. In a country that imports most of its food, a disruption lasting one week would be serious. Preparation could include cyber exercises involving wholesalers and ports, pre-authorised manual customs procedures and paper waybills, emergency credit for imports, reserve cold-storage capacity, and a published system for allocating scarce staple foods.
Fringe worries
Accelerationism and techno-occultism
"Effective accelerationism" supports faster technological development, particularly in AI, with fewer safeguards. The idea has reached startup communities, donors and some public officials, where it can influence rules on safety, labour and privacy. It may encourage useful experimentation, but it also creates a risk that policy will reflect a narrow ideological position. At the fringe, communities associated with AI development have produced radical groups such as the Zizians and forms of techno-occultism. As AI becomes part of daily life, pseudo-religious movements organised around it could become a security concern not covered by existing approaches to deradicalisation. An attack by such a group would cause direct harm and could also damage the Maldives' reputation as a safe destination. Existing training and deradicalisation materials could be expanded to cover technology-centred cults and accelerationist ideology. Transparency and conflict-of-interest rules could apply to policy advice and funding, while expert panels should include perspectives from safety, ethics, labour and small businesses.
Black swan events
None of these events is likely, but each would have consequences large enough to warrant a place in national planning.
A deadlier pandemic than COVID-19
A future pandemic could cause higher mortality, more severe staff shortages, longer border closures and greater long-term illness than COVID-19. The WHO agreement raises expectations for preparedness but does not remove the difficult policy choices involved. In addition to the governance measures described above, the Maldives would need continuously maintained stockpiles, designated health lanes at airports, operational procedures for sharing data and specimens, and rapid compensation and support for affected sectors.
Artificial super-intelligence or the singularity
Some observers argue that frontier models already display elements of artificial general intelligence, while superintelligence appears increasingly possible. Current systems are capable in fields such as coding and mathematics. A rapid increase in problem-solving, autonomous tool use and self-improvement could change labour markets, security and the information environment within months. The most immediate danger would be misuse or loss of control in critical infrastructure. A small state can prepare by establishing an AI safety office with authority to suspend high-risk government systems. Models used by the state should undergo adversarial testing and be subject to incident-reporting rules. Further safeguards include controls on the purchase of computing capacity and access in critical sectors, together with continuity plans for essential public services if digital systems fail or must be restricted.
Global or regional nuclear conflict
A regional or global nuclear exchange could affect the Maldives without any strike near the country. Air routes, insurance, food trade and tourism could fail at the same time. Imports of fuel and medicine could be interrupted, foreign workers might leave, and foreign-exchange earnings would collapse. Recovery would be slow and politically difficult. Preparation would include strategic reserves of fuel, food, medicine and desalination equipment. The government would also need independent communications using satellite telephones and high-frequency radio, an agreed order of priority for ports and airports, and a system for locating and assisting Maldivian citizens abroad. Economic plans would need to support a temporary shift from tourism to basic domestic production through cash transfers and public employment programmes.
Large-scale unilateral geoengineering
A state or private actor could begin large-scale intervention without broad international consent. An aerosol programme could alter rainfall, storm patterns and fisheries even if it were intended to reduce global temperatures. Fishers, farmers and insurers might experience the effects before governments had agreed on a response, creating diplomatic and economic shocks. Atmospheric monitoring, established legal positions, diplomatic crisis plans and financial buffers for fisheries and tourism would provide some protection.
Prolonged, multi-week global internet degradation
A severe solar storm, especially when combined with major cable damage, could degrade global connectivity for several weeks and affect islands most heavily. Aviation, banking, ports and emergency communications could all be disrupted at the same time. Preparation should include land-based backup timing systems, high-frequency radio plans, cash and manual procedures for retail and government services, and exercises that test how essential services operate during a prolonged communications failure.
Discovery of extraterrestrial life
Two types of discovery could unsettle societies. Confirmed microbial life within the solar system, perhaps beneath the surface of Mars or Europa, would challenge assumptions about the uniqueness of life and prompt scientific and theological debate without causing immediate practical disruption. A credible signal from another civilisation, even if detected only once, would have a much larger cultural effect. It could produce intense media coverage, widespread rumours, new movements and opportunistic fraud. Neither discovery would immediately change daily operations, but both could unsettle public trust, identity and systems of belief. A basic plan would cost little to prepare. It could include a draft national statement supporting scientific method, religious freedom and social calm, backed by a small science-communication team trusted to brief the media and schools. Faith leaders and educators could prepare explanatory material, while curricula could add material on astrobiology and scientific certainty. The plan would also need a rapid response to false messages, prophecies and scams, mental-health guidance for anxiety among young people, and a decision on whether to join any international protocol for first contact.